Marcell Wright
Co-Founder & CEO
Former head of product at a regulated exchange. Led the launch of three prediction market verticals across two continents.
About probable
Advisory, intelligence, and infrastructure for the inevitable next phase of prediction markets
probable brings together legal, regulatory, technical, and market expertise to help the ecosystem grow with more clarity, better tools, and stronger operating foundations.
The probable ecosystem
Three divisions, one operating thesis
probable is organized around advisory, data, and platform infrastructure so clients can work across strategy, signal, and execution without context switching.
Explore solutions
probable Solutions
Advisory support for operators, suppliers, investors, and market participants navigating a fast-moving category.
Explore intel
probable Intel
A signal layer for using prediction markets as live intelligence across policy, macro, corporate, and operator contexts.
Explore development
probable Development
The modular technology stack for launching and operating compliant event and prediction market experiences.
What we do
Navigate the site from the perspective that matters to you
Whether you operate markets, provide liquidity, invest in the category, or are building new products, each part of probable is designed to meet a different decision surface.
See advisory work
For exchanges and operators
Shape compliant products, market mechanics, and operating models that are built to stand up under scrutiny.
See intel products
For market makers and traders
Use market data, product structure, and venue expertise to sharpen strategy and execution.
See market positioning
For investors and strategic partners
Understand the landscape, evaluate opportunities, and move faster with category-specific context.
See platform modules
For teams building new products
Launch or embed prediction market capabilities on top of a modular infrastructure foundation.
How we came to be
Built to humanize a category that usually speaks in abstractions
The origin story matters here. probable exists because prediction markets need more than infrastructure alone; they need teams that can translate complexity into trust.
probable began with a simple conviction: prediction markets would not become a durable category until the advisory, data, and infrastructure layers were built with the same seriousness as the markets themselves.
The team came together across legal, regulatory, product, market-design, and engineering backgrounds after seeing the same gap repeat itself from different angles. Operators needed clarity. Traders needed better signal. Builders needed a way to launch faster without improvising their compliance posture.
That is the role probable is built to play. We want to make the ecosystem easier to understand, easier to enter, and easier to operate for the teams willing to build it responsibly.
Our team
The people building probable
Regulatory, technical, and market expertise — brought together to power what's next.
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Tamika Olvera
General Counsel
Regulatory specialist with a decade in derivatives and event contracts compliance.
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Rendo Hashimoto
CTO
Built matching engines processing 4.7M events per second. Previously principal architect at a high-frequency trading firm.
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Lena Corvus
VP of Market Design
Quantitative researcher turned market designer. Architected liquidity models for three prediction platforms.
Our principles
What we stand behind
The commitments that shape how we build, operate, and earn trust.
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Compliance is architecture, not overhead
Regulatory clarity isn't something we bolt on at the end. It shapes every design decision, from market structure to data handling. If it can't be done compliantly, we don't ship it.
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Build for the operator, design for the participant
Our clients are market operators. But the people who use their markets are ours to care about too. Every feature we build gets tested against both lenses.
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Speed without spectacle
We move fast, but we don't confuse velocity with noise. No hype cycles, no vaporware roadmaps. We ship infrastructure that works under load and under scrutiny.
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Transparent by default
We share what we know. With our clients, with regulators, with the communities that trade on our partners' platforms. Opacity is the enemy of trust.
Key statistics
- Jurisdictions navigated
- 3+
- Combined regulatory experience
- 18yr
- Events/sec engine capacity
- 4.7M
- Team members and growing
- 12
Coming soon
Partner announcements are coming soon
We are building the partner layer deliberately. As public references and launch relationships are ready to share, this is where they will appear.
Want to work with probable?
Use the intake flow to tell us whether your need is strategic, informational, or platform-oriented.
Start a conversation